Identifying value is essential for fantasy basketball drafts, but it’s an inexact science. With that in mind, Rotoworld’s staff has identified some of its “studs” and “fakes” ahead of the 2024-25 season, predicting high- and low-value options projected to go in the early, middle and late rounds of. drafts Next up is Zak Hanshew, who is high on Phoenix’s newest addition and potential starting PG.
Stud: Trae Young
Some fantasy basketball enthusiasts — including my esteemed colleague Raphielle Johnson — are skeptical of Young’s prospects entering the 2024-25 season. It’s understandable considering Young’s high turnover rate and low FG%. Hey, pobody is a nerf, right? You’d be hard-pressed to find a high-use guard with phenomenal efficiency and elite ball security. Despite two notable deficiencies, Young is excellent as a scorer and tremendous as a facilitator. He finished 36th in per-game value in 9-cat leagues but 14th in 8-cat leagues last season. For managers in 8-cat leagues pushing FG%, Young was a top option.
Since his rookie season in 2018-19, Young has increased his assists per game in five straight campaigns. Over the last two seasons, Young has averaged a healthy 25.9 points, 10.5 assists, 1.2 steals and 2.7 triples while shooting 43% from the floor, 87.4% from the charity stripe and committing 4.3 turnovers. Young produced at an elite level during those two seasons despite sharing the backcourt with Dejounte Murray, but Murray was traded to New Orleans in the offseason. Young’s 30.4 Usage Rate in 2023-24 was the lowest since his rookie campaign, and fantasy managers should expect Murray to walk out the door. We project Young to lead the NBA in assists this season, and I expect him to finish as a top 10 player in 2024-25.
DUD: Joel Embiid
I’m not touching this guy with a 10-foot pole in the 2024-25 fantasy basketball draft. Early ADP data (via Hashtag Basketball) shows Embiid going on average at pick 8.2. For a guy always in the top-3 in per-game fantasy ring value, his starting draft position reflects the fatigue of fantasy managers. Embiid is a perennial per-game monster, but he’s also perennially injured, which is why I’m against him.
The big man appeared in 68 games in 2022-23 and 66 games in the previous season, but he only recorded 39 games in 2023-24. Embiid’s per-game numbers were ridiculous as he posted 34.7 points, 11 boards, 5.6 dimes, 1.2 steals, 1.7 blocks and 1.4 triples. As good as those numbers were, managers who spent a top pick on Embiid couldn’t reap the benefits for the majority of the campaign. Philly brought in Andre Drummond to serve as a true backup big man and take some pressure off Embiid, and the team brought in superstar Paul George to take even more pressure off. It wouldn’t be surprising if Philly deliberately limited Embiid’s games for next season to make sure he doesn’t go broke in the playoffs.
Stud: Jalen Johnson
Johnson was the fantasy darling of the 2023-24 campaign, finishing with career-high averages of 16 points, 8.7 boards, 3.6 dimes, 1.2 steals, 0.8 blocks and 1.3 triples. He shot efficiently from the floor with a 51.1% mark and committed just 1.8 turnovers. The Duke product finished 48th in per-game fantasy value, but multiple injuries limited him to 56 appearances. He’s set to open the season as Atlanta’s starting PF, and our projections predict he’ll be even better in 2024-25, finishing as the 40th-ranked fantasy player.
Johnson’s only real limitation is his lackluster FT%, but otherwise, he can fill up the stat sheet on any given night. As a stretch four, Johnson can hit triples, get defensive stats, score, rebound and facilitate, making him a Swiss Army knife for fantasy managers.
DUD: Chris Middleton
Middleton just hasn’t been the same over the past two seasons due to recurring injuries and procedures. Middleton underwent surgery on both ankles in July, marking the third straight offseason undergoing the procedure. Middleton had wrist surgery in 2022 that cost him the first 20 games of the 2022-23 season, and he sprained his MCL in the 2023 playoffs that prompted knee surgery. Middleton has played 88 total games over the last two campaigns, and health concerns are at an all-time high for the 33-year-old.
Middleton is a key player in Milwaukee’s rotation as a scorer, playmaker and floor-spacer, and his per-game numbers have been respectable when on the court. Middleton started slowly in each of the last two while slowly building up and finishing strong. He averaged 15.1 points, 4.5 rebounds. 5.1 assists and 1.6 triples in that span, and those numbers were good for a finish inside the top-90 in per-game fantasy value. We predict Middleton will play 57 games in 2024-25, but that number could certainly end up going down.
Stud: Tyus Jones
Jones went from Memphis serving as the team’s primary backup PG to a starting gig in Washington in which he thrived. Jones enjoyed the best season of his career, setting career highs across the board with 12 points, 2.7 rebounds, 7.3 assists, 1.1 steals, 0.3 blocks and 1.6 triples while shooting 48.9/80 shooting splits and committing just 1 turnover per game.
Jones was solid throughout the 2024-25 campaign, but he was particularly effective during his final 14 games. In that span, Jones averaged 9.8 points, 2.4 rebounds, 0.9 steals, 1.6 triples and 1.4 turnovers. Most notably, he gave up 10.6 dimes in those games and gave up at least 10 in seven of them. Devin Booker played great as Phoenix’s de facto PG last season, but Jones should step into the starting PG role for the Suns, where he’ll be set up for success right away. Jones was an assist machine playing for the last-place Wizards, and he should have no problem increasing his assist total while feeding Phoenix’s big three of Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal and Booker. Jones has a top-70 ceiling for the 2024-25 season.
DUD: Jerami Grant
Grant averaged 21.0 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.6 blocks and 2.1 triples through 33.9 minutes per game in his second season with the Blazers. He logged just 54 games and averaged just 54.5 games over his last four campaigns due to injuries and playing for bad teams. Grant posted three straight top-85 seasons before falling outside the top-100 in 2023-24. His blocks fell, and his turnovers increased, which were two big reasons for the decline in fantasy value.
Portland traded Malcolm Brogdon, the No. 14 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft and a 2029 pick for Deni Avdija in the offseason, and the former Wizard is expected to steal some minutes and counting stats from Grant. Grant led Portland in scoring last season, and he shot better than 40% from beyond the arc for the second straight season. Points and triples are his two best categories for fantasy managers, but if he doesn’t protect the ball or get close to a block per game, he won’t hope to crack the top 100. Shaedon Sharpe is expected to be healthy to open the season. , Scoot Henderson steps up and Avdijia is now in the mix. Grant’s role may be muted compared to what it has been in previous seasons, making him a risky option in drafts with significant error potential.
