Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bets for Monday night’s NBA slate, including Lakers vs. Suns and Jayson Tatum vs. the Bucks.
Lakers at Suns (-4): O/U 228.0
I backed Anthony Davis Over 24.5 Points when these teams met on Friday and Davis turned in another impressive 35 point outing and followed that up with 31 the next night against Sacramento.
While I’m tempted to redo it on Davis, the undefeated Lakers are playing their third game in four days and the first road game of the season. This looks like a great place to support the Suns, who lost to the Lakers 123-116 on Friday.
However, the Suns played on Saturday and defeated the Mavericks (114-102), while the Lakers defeated the Kings (131-127). This is also the third game in four days for Phoenix after playing LA on Friday, so I expect tired legs and a lot of missed shots between the two teams.
The total for the previous meeting was 226.5 and flew over with a 123-116 score. The books opened the total back up at 227.5 and 228.0. Give me the Sub 228 (-110).
Choose: Under 228 (1u)
Jayson Tatum to double-double against Bucks (+105)
Jayson Tatum has been a major beneficiary in the rebounding department since Robert Williams was traded last season and with Kristaps Porzingis out.
Tatum had four rebounds in two of three games this season and 11 in the other contest against the Wizards. Tatum only averaged 10.7 rebound chances per game, but he only played 29 and 30 minutes against the Knicks and Wizards.
I think Tatum plays enough and is aggressive enough to grab 10-plus boards, but if it’s the help game tonight, I’ll ride the double-double at +105 odds instead of the Over 9.5 rebounds at +114.
Choose: Jayson Tatum double-double (1u)
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Josh Giddey O/U 13.5 Points at Grizzlies
Josh Giddey put up the Over 12.5 Points for us against the Thunder (14 points), but that was a revenge point against his former team in Chicago.
Now, the Bulls go on the road to Memphis and face another tough defense with speedy guards. Marcus Smart, Desmond Bane and Ja Morant will be the main focus and I don’t think Giddey will offer much when it comes to scoring.
Giddey is 3-0 to the Over 13.5 Points scoring 14, 17, and 14 points. However, his RPM has been -22, -2, and -21 this year, so his minutes may not be consistent going forward. I played Giddey Under 13.5 Points (-115) and would go down to 12.5.
Choose: Josh Giddey Under 13.5 Points (1.5u)
Season Record: 13-7 (65%) +6.55 units
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