We have about a week until the first tip of the regular season, and this is when most people do their NBA fantasy drafts. There is no better time of year, and hitting your first picks will be critical to your success. We are writing this article to feature players who should be first round picks. Only 12 guys will be selected in the first round of standard leagues, but a handful more could deliver first-round value. With that in mind, let’s take a look at some of those snubs!
Stephen Curry
Golden State Warriors
(ADP: 12.5)
I’ve seen Curry taken between 10-15 in every draft I’ve done, and I’ll always pick him if I pick in that range. The greatest shooter of all time is simply a cheat code in most formats because of his shooting. Not only has he shot 92 percent from the free throw line over the past seven seasons, but he’s also a near-guarantee to lead the league in three-pointers made. Cook Curry has led the league in three-pointers in eight of the last 12 seasons and typically circles the field in that category. Having a guy lead the league in two different categories is a godsend for nine-cat leagues, and he’s also averaging 28.3 points, 5.3 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 1.0 steals and 4.9 threes per game over the last four seasons. Couple that with elite shooting makes him one of the best options in fantasy, and he could have even higher usage now that Chris Paul and Klay Thompson are out of the picture.
Trae Young
Atlanta Hawks
(ADP: 12.7)
It’s funny that Curry and Young have the same ADP because these guys are very similar players. Young is not as good a shooter as Curry, but he will make up for it with his assists. Ice Trae has at least 9.3 assists in five straight seasons, leading all active players with 9.5 assists over his career. That’s scary because he might do even more playmaking with Dejounte Murray out of the picture, but it’s not like Murray is lacking in scoring. Young is fifth among all active players with a career mark of 25.5 points per game, averaging 27 points, 3.5 rebounds, 9.9 assists, 1.0 steals and 2.8 threes since his rookie season. Those numbers would easily make him a top-10 player behind his 88 percent mark from the free throw line, but that could be his floor with Murray moving to New Orleans.
James Harden
Los Angeles Clippers
(ADP: 16.8)
Harden started the draft season being picked in the 20s, but that quickly changed. Harden is thought to return to the high-usage stud we saw in Houston as he has to do more with Paul George out of the picture. That leaves just Harden and Kawhi Leonard, but The Klaw might miss some time as he’s already dealing with a knee issue. With a PG13 from the floor last season, Harden averaged 21.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, 8.9 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.8 blocks and 2.9 threes per 36 minutes played. We can assume that 35-40 minutes is realistic, and those numbers would become even higher if Leonard also misses time. When both of those studs were off the floor, Harden averaged 33.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, 7.4 assists, 0.5 steals and 4.5 threes per 36 minutes played! We don’t expect that, but that’s the kind of stat line that made Harden the best player in fantasy with the Rockets.
Kevin Durant
Phoenix Suns
(ADP: 17.1)
There is a phrase in fantasy sports known as “injury discount”. That’s what we have with KD as he’s played 55 games or less in three of the last four seasons. The efficiency is still there, and we are encouraged by his 75 appearances last season. We also love that he played 37.2 minutes a night, the highest total in a decade! The stats were exactly what you would expect from this superstar, averaging 27.1 points, 6.6 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 0.9 steals, 1.2 blocks and 2.2 threes per game last year. Durant is also shooting 52 percent from the field and 86 percent from the free throw line, making him one of the only players in the league who delivers in each category. There just aren’t many players as reliable as this guy from a nine-cat standpoint. Durant has finished in the top 20 per game in nearly every season since 2009!
LaMelo Ball
Charlotte Hornets
(ADP: 23.1)
Most of these guys are safe picks near the end of the first round, but let’s get into a dark horse here! Ball typically drops to the end of the second round, but this guy can be a first round player. Injuries have really soured fantasy managers in recent years as he has only played 58 games over the last two seasons. What people don’t talk about is Ball was one of the best players in fantasy when he was on the floor, averaging 23.6 points, 5.8 rebounds, 8.2 assists, 1.6 steals and 3.6 threes per game in that span. That’s the aforementioned “injury discount” we mentioned in Durant’s write-up, but what’s different about Ball is that he’s only 23 years old! This kid might be scratching the surface of what he could become, and seeing improvement in those stats would make him a top-10 player in fantasy. Charlotte is also one of the worst teams in the league, and they will need Ball to take them as far as he can take them. Ball finished as the sixth-best player in 2021 when he played 75 games as a 20-year-old, so seeing an improvement from that would be far from a surprise.
Other players under consideration:
Domantas Sabonis
Sacramento Kings (ADP: 14.2)
Donovan Mitchell
Cleveland Cavaliers (ADP: 17.2)
Chet Holmgren
Oklahoma City Thunder (ADP: 17.2)
Jalen Brunson
New York Knicks (ADP: 19.2)
Devin Booker
Phoenix Suns (ADP: 19.4)