Come June, we’ll see a first-time MVP winner.
This season just has that vibe. The winners of the past few MVP awards will undoubtedly be in the mix, but voters understand history. That means they’ll be hesitant to hand Nikola Jokic a fourth MVP without an undisputed season, which is a big ask especially on a Nuggets team most experts expect to take a step back in the regular season. Joel Embiid is always good enough to win, but if he and Philadelphia focus on the postseason, will he reach 65 games to qualify? Giannis Antetokounmpo can never be left off these lists, but questions about team success and his own numbers come into play.
However, a group of newcomers is ready to step up. My prediction:
2024-25 NBA MVP:
1. Luka Doncic
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
3. Jalen Brunson
4. Nikola Jokic
5. Jayson Tatum
This is the third year in a row I’ve picked Doncic. I will eventually be right.
Doncic looked every bit the MVP last season, averaging 33.9 points, 9.8 assists and 8.4 rebounds last season — and the Mavericks should be better this season on offense. The addition of Klay Thompson will help space the floor (teams have gotten help from Derrick Jones Jr. in a way they can’t with Thompson), and a more mature Dereck Lively Jr. in the paint gives Luka a lob threat.
Doncic will average a triple-double for the season, or come close to it, and that plus the Mavericks will win him the award.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was second in MVP voting a season ago and has a better team around him this season – if the Thunder round out the field in the West with the best record he could run away with MVP. Brunson would be where I’d put my money if I were a betting man, he has longer odds than everyone else (+1400 at Bet MGM) and I think he’s a sneaky good candidate. He was fifth in MVP voting a season ago and the Knicks should have a better offense with Karl-Anthony Towns helping New York play five-out that opens up driving lanes and opportunities. If the Knicks push (or pass) the Celtics for the No. 1 seed in the East, Brunson will get a lot of love.
Jokic, Antetokounmpo and the Celtics Jayson Tatum will absolutely garner votes and could win it, the odds just seem longer. For Jokic and Antetokounmpo, the numbers will be there (and the Greek Freak’s defense helps his case), but will the level of team success needed be there compared to Doncic/SGA/Brunson? For Tatum, the question isn’t team success but rather how deep that team is — he doesn’t have to carry this team, he doesn’t have to play like MVP every night for them to have a chance, and while that’s great for the Celtics’ title chances, that it hurts him in the MVP race. Fair or not.
One other name to watch — not to win it but to land in the top five this season — is Anthony Edwards in Minnesota. His day is also coming up on this list, it might just be a few years away.
