Only one thing feels certain in the West this season – chaos.
There are 12 teams – 13 if you believe the San Antonio Spurs – that expect to make the playoffs but only eight spots. There is no margin for error, injuries that keep a star out for just a few weeks could tip the scales, and some coaches will feel their seats getting heated early in the season.
The closest thing to a certainty is that Oklahoma City, Dallas and Denver will be very good, the Trail Blazers are not, but almost everything in between will be stacked. Let’s break it all down.
Who is the favorite to win the 2025 Western Conference Finals?
Here are the current odds to win the Western Conference, courtesy of our partners at Bet MGM (odds to win the title in parentheses).
1. Oklahoma City +300 (+500)
T-2. Denver +500 (+1100)
T-2. Dallas +500 (+1200)
T-2. Minnesota +500 (+1200)
5. Phoenix +1200 (+2000)
2024-25 NBA Western Conference Predictions
TITLE CONDUCTORS
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
2. Dallas Mavericks
3. Denver Nuggets
4. Minnesota Timberwolves
The only thing I feel comfortable about in this whole story is the Thunder finishing with the #1 seed — they did that last season, then added two key role players in Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein (even with Hartenstein out until December with a broken handit won’t slow them down much).
The next three on this list could end up in any order and one would expect them all to be on the same level for some reason. With Luka Doncic in Dallas (my MVP pick) and Nikola Jokic in Denver, we know they will be elite. I will add that I’m less confident in Minnesota (and almost dropped them to the next level), I’m not sold on the Julius Randle fit, especially come the postseason (but Donte DiVincenzo might make up for that).
FRINGE CHALLENGERS (WE HAVE QUESTIONS)
5. Phoenix Suns
6. Memphis Grizzlies
PLAYOFFS OR BUST
7. New Orleans Pelicans
8. Sacramental Kings
9. Golden State Warriors
10. Los Angeles Lakers
11. Houston Rockets
12. Los Angeles Clippers
The reality is 5-12 is so stacked in the West that this group could finish in any order and it would be unsurprising. I predict that five games will ultimately separate the No. 6 seed team that avoids the playoffs and the No. 11 seed team that misses the postseason altogether. It’s going to be so stressful.
Phoenix and Memphis are on their own “Fringe Contender” level because I believe their ceilings are higher than the rest of the teams in this group. If Mike Budeholzer can get the Suns to play defense and Tyus Jones performs as well as some of us expect at the point, a Phoenix team with Olympians Kevin Durant and Devin Booker are legitimate contenders (mostly about health, and last season, that is. hold on them outside the upper part). Memphis was the #2 seed and a team on the rise for a couple of seasons until it was decimated by injuries a season ago, if Ja Morant returns to form and Zach Edey can hold down the paint, this could be a top four. team in the West.
Every team left in this group has plenty of talent but faces tough questions: How does New Orleans look playing small with Herb Jones as the starting center? Can Sacramento get enough stops to earn that much mid-range shooting? Who is the Warriors’ second-leading shot creator behind Stephen Curry? Is JJ Redick fit with the Lakers (and can they get another relatively healthy season from LeBron James and Anthony Davis)? How big a step forward will all the youth in Houston take? Will a return to a heavy dose of James Harden work for the Clippers (and how many games does Kawhi Leonard play)?
HOPEFUL GAME TEAMS
13. Spurs
Victor Wembanyama might be enough to get the Spurs into the game on his own, and having Chris Paul as quite the boss mentor will be good for this young team. They are capable of making the game, especially if Stephon Castle steps up like some of us believe he can, but there are plenty of good teams ahead of them.
LOTTERY LINKED
14. Utah Jazz
15. Portland Trail Blazers
Utah isn’t a bad team, especially with Lauri Markkanen at the four — he’s an underrated player — but they lack the depth to challenge in this West and will pivot to the lottery at some point this season. Portland has already signaled their intentions, but it will be interesting to see how their wealth of young talent begins to develop and who emerges as a real part of the future for the Blazers.
WESTERN CONFERENCE PLAYOFF SCHEDULES
First Round
Thunder over Kings
Mavericks over Pelicans
Nuggets over Grizzlies
Suns over Timberwolves
Semifinals
Thunder over Suns
Mavericks over Nuggets
Western Conference Finals
Thunder over Mavericks
NBA FINALS PRODUCER
Celts over Thunder
Picking the Celtics feels boring and safe, but they’re the only team that answered enough questions for me to feel comfortable picking them. However, if Kristaps Porzingis (or another key player) is not healthy, a team like New York or Philadelphia could take their spot in the Finals.
I feel more confident that the Thunder take a step forward and get out of the West – although Dallas returning to the Finals wouldn’t be a shock, the Mavs have upgraded this offseason – but I don’t see anyone from the West beating a healthy Celtics. a team Not this season, anyway.
