It was another rough go with my anti-spread picks last week when I went 6-8, but I was 11-3 straight up.
So some good and some bad — as usual.
One of these weeks, everything will be fine again. Or am I fantasizing? It has to change, right?
The season records are now 100-66 straight up and 75-88-3 ATS. That means I have to turn it around in a big way to get back above .500 ATS. The weeks go by, so that must start this week. I see a big week ATS and straight up.
It’s November, which means it’s on the rise. Thanksgiving is next week and I would like to close .500 as we hit December.
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Thursday, 8:15 pm ET (Main Video)
The Steelers are playing well, while the Browns are not. But this is a divisional game on a short week on the road. That’s tough for any team. And Russell Wilson was not good last week. The Browns will show up for this one and keep it close. The Steelers will win it on a late Chris Boswell field goal, but it’s tight.
Choose: Steelers 20, Browns 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Most important+)
The Chiefs are coming off their first loss to the Bills, while the Panthers are coming away. With the Chiefs losing, their focus will be good. That will matter. They regroup and beat a team they are far better than from a talent standpoint. The chiefs are back on their way.
Choose: Chiefs 32, Panthers 13
Sunday, 1 pm ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Bears lost a heartbreaker last week, but the Vikings are off two straight road wins and now have to play on the road for a third straight week. That won’t be easy. But I think this will be a game won by the defense as they throw a ton of looks at Caleb Williams and force turnovers. The Vikings will win it.
Choose: Vikings 23, Bears 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Most important+)
The Texans are playing on a short week, but they looked better offensively against Dallas with Nico Collins back. The Titans will have trouble stopping them this week, so look for the Texans and CJ Stroud to play well. Will Levis will not continue.
Choose: Texans 31, Titans 21
Sunday, 1 pm ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Colts looked good in a road win at the Jets last week, but this is a major step up in competition. The Lions offense is clicking again and should have success against the Colts defense. The question is whether Anthony Richardson can do it two weeks in a row. I’ll take the Lions in this one.
Choose: Lions 30, Colts 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Most important+)
The Dolphins won two straight from the bye to get back into the playoff race. Tua Tagovailoa has been playing well since his return from the concussion issues. The Patriots have done some good things with Drake Maye, but this is a tough matchup on the road. Miami wins another.
Choose: Dolphins 32, Patriots 21
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Most important+)
This is Tommy DeVito at quarterback for the Giants, who put Daniel Jones. It doesn’t matter. The Giants offense has struggled for a variety of reasons, not just quarterback. The Bucs are coming away and they are getting healthier, which is important. They earn it.
Choose: Bucs 27, Giants 13
Sunday, 1 pm ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Cowboys are a mess right now, while the Commanders are coming off a tough loss to the Eagles. They played Thursday, so they have extra rest, while the Cowboys are on the road for a Monday night game. Washington is the better team and that extra rest will do wonders for Jayden Daniels. An explosion.
Choose: Commanders 31, Cowboys 16
Sunday, 4:05 pm ET (CBS, Most important+)
This is a careful game for the Broncos. They are riding high after their impressive win over the Falcons last week. But this is a divisional game on the road. That matters. The Broncos will win it, but it will be close thanks to a solid defensive effort from the Raiders.
Choose: Broncos 20, Raiders 17
Sunday, 4:25 pm ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The 49ers are reeling now. They just don’t look like the same team and now they face a tough Packers team that had them beat in the playoffs last year before folding late. The Packers still haven’t looked great on offense this season, but the 49ers haven’t been the same team period. Look for Jordan Love and the Packers offense to play well here. Packers take it.
Choose: Packers 27, 49ers 20
Sunday, 4:25 pm ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Cardinals are away from a bye, while the Seahawks are away from a tough, physical win over the 49ers. That wears on a team. Seattle looked good defensively in that game, but Kyler Murray is playing well now. He will be in this one as the Cardinals win a key division game to stay in first place.
Choose: Cardinals 23, Seahawks 20
Sunday, 8:20 pm ET (NBC, fubo try for free)
The Eagles righted their affairs from earlier in the year to take the NFC East. But this is a long trip against a good team that really can’t afford any more losses. With the Rams offense back on track with a return to health of their receivers, I think they show up here and pull off the upset.
Choose: Rams 28, Eagles 21
Bonus: The SportsLine Projection Model has revealed its Week 12 NFL picksincluding the Eagles-Rams game on Sunday night. Check out the other options at SportsLine.
Monday, 8:15 pm ET (ESPN, fubo try for free)
The Ravens are playing back-to-back road games after losing a tough physical battle against the Steelers last week. The offense was disjointed in that game, but now has to face another good defense. The Chargers beat the Bengals behind the play of the offense and I think that will carry over as they win the battle of the Harbaugh brothers.
Choose: Chargers 31, Ravens 26
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