Rockets reportedly aren’t interested in Giannis Antetokounmpo trade, so what exactly is their long-term plan? |Max Sporty|

In June, the Houston Rockets made a trade that seemed, at least in theory, to be a prelude to a second, bigger one. When the Brooklyn Nets sent Mikal Bridges to the New York Knicks, they also looped in the Rockets and traded control of a handful of future draft picks they owned originally belonging to the Phoenix Suns (and one of either the Nets or Dallas Mavericks) for control. of their own picks back in 2025 and 2026. Those Nets picks, at least at the moment, looked like some of the most valuable draft assets in basketball.

But the Rockets, based on reporting at the time, held specific interest in those Suns picks as a sort of shortstop against Phoenix’s future. The Suns were coming off a disappointing first-round sweep and held limited flexibility to improve as they traded away most of their draft picks and were above the second apron. Like ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported at the time, the Rockets wanted to be in a position to give Phoenix their own draft picks back and, with them, the ability to tank and rebuild if they ever decided to trade. Kevin Durant or Devin Booker. Phoenix has so far resisted all overtures, but as recently as Sunday, Marc Stein called Durant Houston “a dream goal.” While Stein also reported a widespread belief around the league that the Rockets want to wait until the offseason to make a big trade, even having a dream goal suggests a willingness to jump should the right star become available.

And that’s what made The Athletic’s Kelly Iko’s reporting on Wednesday so confusing. While he’s not as versatile as Durant, Giannis Antetokounmpo, at least on paper, feels much more like a dream target for a team ready to swing success than Durant. Antetokounmpo is more than six years younger than Durant and has beaten him in MVP voting an amazing eight years in a row. Almost every metric tells us that Antetokounmpo is the superior player today. Last season, for example, Antetokounmpo more than doubled Durant in terms of BPM (9.0 to 4.0), came close in VORP (7.2 to 4.3) and Win Shares per 48 minutes (.246 to .129). Antetokounmpo has had some minor injuries but has never missed 20 games in a season. Durant has done so in four of the past five seasons.

However, according to Iko, the Rockets are not interested in breaking up their young core to land Antetokounmpo in a trade, should the reeling Bucks ever decide to move him. It’s a confusing stance on the surface because, well, who wouldn’t do want Giannis? He has a real case for the title “Best player in the NBAnot named Nikola Jokic.” He’s fragile on certain rosters, sure, but he’s good enough to warrant more trades. If your team doesn’t make sense for a two-time MVP in his prime, your team is the problem, not him. So what’s going on here?

Let’s run through the simplest answers here. This could just be attitude. It’s easier to trade for a player when their current team doesn’t think you’re desperate. Ask the Los Angeles Clippers what happens when you’re really desperate to land a specific player. It is also possible that there is no organizational consensus. ESPN’s Tim MacMahon said as much regarding the Durant interest in July during an appearance on the Lowe Post podcast. It is possible, for example, that Durant is a favorite target of head coach Ime Udoka, who was an assistant in Brooklyn when Durant was a Net and reportedly the 2014 MVP’s preferred choice to replace Steve Nash in 2022. But the organization needs alignment for a trade of this magnitude to happen. If that’s not there, it’s hard to imagine Houston breaking the bank for anyone.

But the logical answer here has less to do with Antetokounmpo, Durant, Booker or any player on another team’s roster and more to do with what Houston already has. The Rockets, in short, still don’t quite know what they have.

It’s still early, but the 2024-25 Rockets look like a playoff team. They are 11-5 with a plus-8.5 net rating. Ironically, a missed outbound call on Antetokounmpo is the only thing keeping them out of a three-way tie with the Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder for the Western Conference’s No. 1 seed. And they did it, amazingly, without an obvious All-Star caliber player. Alperen Sengun made a real run at election a year ago, but his winning numbers have dropped significantly. No one on the roster is averaging 20 points. Meanwhile, five of the seven players who represent the core of this year’s rotation are 23 or younger. That doesn’t include No. 3 overall pick Reed Sheppard or the promising 20-year-old Cam Whitmore. The Rockets have so much talent right now that they can’t even find playing time for everyone.

That’s a good problem to have, but it’s a problem nonetheless, and one that affects the Rockets on multiple levels. On a practical level, it is impossible to pay everyone. Houston managed his finances very well. Next summer, for example, both Jalen Green and Sengun are set to trigger expensive new rookie deals. The Rockets are prepared for that, though, as they can remove nearly $53 million from their books just by declining Fred VanVleet’s team option and waiving the non-guaranteed Jock Landale. A rookie extension for Amen Thompson would kick in just as Dillon Brooks’ four-year deal expires. One for Sheppard would kick in just as Green’s rookie extension ends. Rafael Stone is one of the best cap strategists in basketball. That doesn’t make the aprons any more forgiving.

This informs the logic of a consolidation trade as much as the talent upgrade would. Superstar salaries are limited by max contracts. Antetokounmpo, for example, is making less this season than Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez combined. Any team would rather have Antetokounmpo, but paying multiple high-level players will almost always be more expensive than paying one great one. Those sub-star level players create a dead-through-the-depth scenario where a team has no great players and is littered with expensive good ones.

The Rockets have years before that becomes a real problem, but in a perfect world, they’d probably prefer to sidestep it entirely. One of the benefits of playing all this youth now, before getting a big-name veteran, is that it allows those young players to create an organic hierarchy. If there’s a budding star in the mix here, he has room to prove it. Right now, the Rockets are still figuring out which of these young players they should prioritize and, perhaps just as importantly, which ones make sense next to whatever stars they might one day target.

That is no guarantee that they will ever choose to do so. The Rockets are playing so well right now that there are certain scenarios in which they decide to just let it ride with this group, use those Suns picks to add cheap upside down the line and call it a day. One of the advantages of winning so much with such a young team is that it makes such a scenario believable. One day, the Rockets may determine that they don’t have a superstar in this group and need to trade for one. Today? Their record alone creates more leverage than the media ever could. They don’t have to trade for Durant or Antetokounmpo or anyone else right now. They can afford to be patient and selective, a luxury they didn’t have at the bottom of the classification.

If Antetokounmpo were to become available, it would be irresponsible of the Rockets not to at least sign up. The wording of Iko’s reporting is that Houston isn’t interested in breaking up its young core for Antetokounmpo, not that it isn’t interested in a trade. for him at all. Right now, the Rockets are figuring out who exactly their young core is, and considering how much current talent, youth and draft capital is here, it’s entirely plausible that the Rockets could build a future star trade that doesn’t cost them everything they have. already built That, arguably, is the goal here: to build on what’s happening now, not tear it down for the first big name that hits the market.

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