For all the talk of trades involving starting pitchers, six weeks into the offseason passed before a big name actually moved, assuming the Tyler Glasnow deal becomes official on Friday.
As is often the case, free agents come first. And three top starters, righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto and lefties Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, remain unsigned, as do a number of other options on the open market.
Before Glasnow, the most significant starter to move was converted reliever Michael King, who went from the Yankees to the Padres in the Juan Soto blockbuster. Dylan Cease of The White Sox, Corbin Burnes of Brewers and Shane Bieber of Guardians remain available. Neither the Mariners nor Marlins traded a starter of consequence. Neither the Reds nor Orioles dealt for one. And trade activity beyond those pitchers and teams is possible, if not likely.
Tyler Glasnow will be on his way to the Dodgers once an extension with the team is finalized. (Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports)
The Glasnow deal, if completed, will be something of a coup for the Rays as well as the Dodgers. Glasnow, 30, is a Southern California native. By sending him to a place he wants to go and a team willing to give him an extension, the Rays will demand a better-than-expected return for a pitcher who is set to make $25 million next season in his final year of club control.
Even the inclusion of outfielder Manuel Margot won’t depress the Rays’ haul much, in part because Tampa Bay will include a reported $4 million to pay the remaining $12 million Margot is guaranteed. That’s right, one of the game’s lowest-grossing clubs is set to write a check to a big-market monster that just signed Shohei Ohtani for $700 million. Baseball, as always, is full of strange surprises.
The deal will still save the Rays about $33 million in 2024 salary while allowing them to acquire right-hander Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny Deluca. Those two players entered last season as the Dodgers’ No. 13 and No. 19 prospects, respectively, according to The Athletic’s Keith Law — and that was before both made impressive major league debuts.
It’s an interesting business, perhaps the first of many. But Yamamato, Snell and Montgomery aren’t the only free-agent starters still available. The next part includes Marcus Stroman, Michael Wacha, Lucas Giolito and Shota Imanaga. And the trade market could continue to lag until some of those names are off the board.
See where things stand on various fronts, according to major league sources briefed on conversations happening in the industry.
Top of the market
The White Sox are talking to clubs about Stop, but still seem inclined to wait until after Yoshinobu and company sign, believing that the urgency of teams hitting those pitchers will only increase.
Cease, who is under club control for two more seasons, remains an obvious target for the Reds and Orioles, who are not involved with the top free agents. But he’s also a possibility for other teams monitoring the trade market, a group that includes the Yankees, Giants, Braves and Rangers.
The same goes for Burnes, who the Brewers are willing to trade, but only for the proverbial right price. Like Glasnow, Burnes is under club control for just one more season. Burnes, on the other hand, is represented by Scott Boras, making him unlikely to sign an extension with a team that acquires him. Glasnow is represented by Wasserman Media Group, which has historically been more open to such deals.
Then there’s Bieber, who is also under club control for just one more season and seemingly less in demand. The Rangers recently signed righty Ben Lively to a major league contract, but it’s hard to imagine the addition of such a modestly accomplished pitcher as a precursor to a Bieber trade.
Bieber is coming off an elbow problem that limited his second half availability to two starts in September. His average four-seam fastball velocity, 94.1 mph in his 2020 Cy Young season, has dropped to 91.3 the past two years. The Rangers’ best option might be to hold on to him, thinking he could rebuild his value before the trade deadline.
The problem is, MLBTradeRumors.com projects Bieber to earn $12.2 million in arbitration. The Guardians, one of several clubs exercising financial restraint due to uncertainty surrounding their regional sports network, may simply want to move their wages. Earlier this offseason, they designated right-hander Cal Quantrill for assignment and traded him to the Rockies to clear his projected $6.6 million.
The defending World Series champions
A week ago, I wrote about the possibility of the Rangers adding free-agent left-hander Clayton Kershaw and activating him after the All-Star break with another elite pitcher coming off surgery, Jacob deGrom.
Using similar logic, the Rangers on Thursday signed free-agent righty Tyler Mahle to a two-year, $22 million deal. Mahle underwent Tommy John surgery in May and will likely be out until at least mid-season. Kershaw is on a similar schedule coming off surgery to repair the glenohumeral ligaments and capsule in his left shoulder. But a source briefed on the Rangers’ thinking described him as still “very much” in play.
The Rangers want to build the same kind of pitching depth that carried them to their first Series title. Teams generally grow revenue the season after they win a championship, but the Rangers are another club facing an uncertain future with its RSN.
If ownership becomes more comfortable adding payroll, the Rangers could pursue a reunion with Montgomery or a trade for one of the top starters. Expanding the bullpen would be another option.
The Sailors
One rival executive interested in starting pitching speculated Thursday that the Mariners’ apparent reluctance to trade one of their young pitchers stems from their own concerns about RSN.
The Mariners spent the early part of the offseason creating salary flexibility. From that perspective alone, it would make little sense for them to trade a minimum-salary starter such as Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo. But finances are not the only reason they are reluctant to make such a deal.
This offseason’s free agency prices reinforce that young, verifiable starters are the game’s most coveted commodity. If righty Seth Lugo can command a three-year, $45 million deal at 34, after his first season as a full-time starter, then the return for six years of either Miller or Woo should be considerable, to say the least.
The Mariners’ rotation is their strength. After trading Brandon Williamson and Connor Phillips and Levi Stoudt, all to the Reds in separate deals for Eugenio Suarez/Jesse Winker and Luis Castillo, the team isn’t as deep as it once was in young starters. Put it all together, and a trade of Miller or Woo would appear increasingly questionable.
Which probably means president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto is going to make some crazy hit tomorrow.
The Marlins
Lefty Jesús Luzardo (three years of club control) and righty Edward Cabrera (five) continue to attract interest. On one hand, the Marlins must proceed with caution, considering that righty Sandy Alcántara will spend the 2024 season recovering from Tommy John surgery and righty Eury Peréz will be on something of an innings limit. On the other hand, new president of baseball operations Peter Bendix is said to be perhaps more open to moving a starter than his predecessor, Kim Ng.
Bendix was previously with the Rays, who routinely trade starters at peak value before they start making too much money. Luzardo is projected to earn $5.9 million in the first of his three years of arbitration. Trading him could be the best way for the Marlins to address offensive needs while guarding against Luzardo’s declining value as he becomes more expensive.
Other teams with beginners
As the market develops, some clubs could increase their willingness to trade a starter, either as a way to reduce their payroll or bolster their offense.
Among them:
Framber Valdez could make sense as a trade chip for the Astros. (Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
The Astros
Executives from two clubs indicated this week that their teams are monitoring the possibility of the Astros trading left-hander Framber Valdez.
For a variety of reasons, such a move could make sense.
The Astros’ luxury tax payroll, according to Fangraphs, currently stands at $237.4 million, slightly above the first threshold. Under owner Jim Crane, the team has exceeded the threshold only once, in the shortened 2020 season, when it turned out that penalties were suspended due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Valdez, 30, is projected to earn $12.1 million in arbitration and become a free agent after the 2025 season. Trading him could give a boost to the Astros’ farm system, which Baseball America ranked 27th in its midseason organizational rankings. Maybe the Astros could get some help for their major league bullpen spot as well.
A less dramatic move would be a trade of righty José Urquidy, who the Astros have sought to deal in the past. Urquidy is projected to earn $3.5 million in arbitration. Like Valdez, he is under club control for two more seasons.
The Giants
The addition of a veteran starter, either through free agency or a trade, might make it more likely that the Giants would pursue their young pitching group, an idea they are already entertaining.
Right-handers Tristan Beck and Keaton Winn made their major league debuts last season. Lefty Kyle Harrison, the team’s top prospect, may be untouchable, but the Giants may listen to three other minor leaguers with promise, lefty Carson Whisenhunt and righties Mason Black and Hayden Birdsong.
Failure to add a veteran starter might make the Giants more hesitant to part with pitching. The team, however, needs to add young, athletic position players who can defend. Hanging young arms might be the best way to do it.
The Cubs
Teams are asking about Ben Brown and Hayden Wesneski, a pair of righties the Cubs acquired in separate trades for relievers David Robertson and Scott Effross at the 2022 deadline. The Cubs aren’t necessarily eager to move, either. But like the Giants, their willingness could increase if they add a veteran starter.
The improvement of the Cubs’ farm system, ranked sixth by Baseball America at midseason, creates new possibilities. To upgrade its offense and/or pitching, the team could be open to parting ways with young pitchers other than Brown and Wesneski as well as infielder/outfielder James Triantos, the Arizona Fall League offensive player of the year. Outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, right-hander Cade Horton and shortstop Matt Shaw might be the only Cubs prospects who are untouchable.
As with so many other clubs, a lot depends on what the Cubs accomplish — or fail to do — in free agency. Ten days before Christmas, so much remains unresolved. But one way or another, trades are coming, all over the industry. It just might take a little more time.
(Top photo of Dylan Cease: Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)
