NFL Week 12 odds, picks: Packers further dash 49ers’ playoff hopes; Chargers win Harbaugh Bowl |Max Sporty|

The NFL coming off what I would consider the best week of the season. The showdown between the Chiefs and Bills has become an instant classic, and that’s not even worth mentioning The NFL Today crew destroying a village’s worth of tables before Bills Mafia leading up to that matchup. Aside from that, we’ve had some other great matchups, and it’s noticeable that teams are starting to step up as the playoffs get closer.

As we move along the stretch in our small betting window on the internet, we’re coming off a solid Week 11, going 8-6 ATS and 10-4 SU on the slate overall. For my five locks of the week, we went 3-2 ATS, which included a properly picked upset win by the Steelers against Baltimore, along with the Chargers knocking off the Bengals. We were on the wrong side of Chiefs-Bills backing Mahomes, but we won’t lose much sleep over it.

Moving on to Week 12, I circled the Harbaugh Bowl as one of my five locks of the week, along with Dan Quinn taking on his former Cowboys squad. Let’s roll.

2024 record

Locks of the Week ATS: 25-25
ATS: 75-88-3
ML: 105-61

All betting odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. Check out the latest DraftKings promo code to get in the game.

• Sunday, 1 pm ET (Fox, fubo)

This is a rough spot for the Cowboys in more ways than one. First, they face a significant rest difference. They work on a short week after playing Monday night and will now visit a Washington team coming off their mini-bye after playing last Thursday. That alone creates massive obstacles, but then there’s the massive talent gap between the NFC East rivals. Cooper Rush vs. Jayden Daniels is a David vs. Goliath matchup at quarterback, and the Dallas offense continues to look lost with Rush under center. Oh, and Commanders coach Dan Quinn has an institutional knowledge of how to attack this team after serving as Dallas’ defensive coordinator the previous three years before accepting the Washington gig.

Meanwhile, the Commanders are 6-0 ATS against sub-.500 teams this season, and clubs that are 9.5 or more underdogs are 0-6 ATS this year. Don’t be afraid of the double digit spread here.

Projected score: Commanders 30, Cowboys 17
The choice: Commanders -10

• Sunday, 1 pm ET (Fox, fubo)

We haven’t been afraid to put up big numbers this season, especially when it comes to the Lions, so why stop now? Sure, Anthony Richardson looked much better in his return as a starter last week, but how much of that was due to playing a New York Jets team that was already out of the season? I expect to see more of the version of Richardson from earlier this season, where he could barely complete half of his passes this week, especially when he’s forced into a pass-first game script against a Lions team that loves to pour it on. against inferior opponents. Detroit is 4-1 ATS on the road this season with an average margin of victory sitting at a league-best 12 points.

Projected score: Lions 33, Colts 23
The choice: Lions -7.5

Ravens at Chargers

• Monday, 8:15 pm ET (ESPN, fubo)

As an older brother myself, it feels a little sacrilegious to bash John Harbaugh and the Ravens here in this sibling rivalry with Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh, but that’s exactly what I’m doing. Yes, Baltimore has two MVP-caliber players in Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, providing them with one of the more lethal offenses in the league, but I just don’t trust the secondary. That unit is giving up the most passing yards per game this season by a healthy margin and faces a quarterback in Justin Herbert who is extremely capable of picking them apart. Meanwhile, the Chargers defense has been solid, holding opponents to a league-best 14.5 points per game, and has been solid at stopping the run. Jackson has been a particularly strong “Monday Night Football” in his career (5-1 ATS), so there’s a lot at stake here, but something tells me Los Angeles keeps it within a field goal and might win outright.

Projected score: Chargers 27, Ravens 24
The choice: Chargers +3

• Sunday, 4:25 pm ET (Fox, fubo)

I was a big believer in the Green Bay Packers at the start of the season, and that waned a bit as we went through the year. Still, that doesn’t stop me from taking them at home when they’re only 2.5-point favorites against a shaky 49ers team. San Francisco is on the brink of their season falling by the wayside as they are 5-5 on the year and coming into this contest beat. Brock Purdy is dealing with right shoulder soreness, and they may be without star pass rusher Nick Bosa due to a hip/oblique injury. Even if both are playing, one would assume they would be limited in what they can do on the field. The Niners are 1-3 ATS on the road this season, and I don’t expect that to improve in Week 12.

Projected score: Packers 27, 49ers 23
The choice: packers -2.5

Bonus bet: The SportsLine model simulated 49ers vs. Packers 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model leans Super on the point total. See which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations.

In an otherwise forgettable season for the Giants, at least they get the entertainment of Tommy DeVito returning under center after benching Daniel Jones, right? Although DeVito should give some boost, I don’t think it will result in wins. The Bucs are also coming off their Week 11 bye and are much more equipped to put up points, even if their receiver room is marred by injuries. The Giants surrender a league-worst 5.3 yards per carry, which sets Bucky Irving up for a strong day on the ground. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay is the second best team in the league on third down and third best in the red zone. If they get up early, Irving should be able to grind out clock and help them cruise to victory.

And this is a good time to highlight the Buccaneers for the future. At DraftKings Sportsbook, Tampa Bay sits at +275 to win the NFC South. Yes, the Bucs lost the head-to-head tie against the first-place Falcons, but their schedule should allow them to leapfrog them outright, making this an intriguing second-half bet to consider.

Projected score: Pirates 24, Giants 16
The choice: Pirates -5

Rest of the set

Steelers at Browns (Thursday)
Projected score: Steelers 23, Browns 17
The choice: Steelers -3.5

Chiefs at Panthers
Projected score: Chiefs 30, Panthers 17
The choice: Chiefs -11

Vikings at Bears
Projected score: Vikings 23, Bears 20
The choice: Bears +3.5

Patriots at Dolphins
Projected score: Dolphins 28, Patriots 20
The choice: Dolphins -7

Titans at Texans
Projected score: Texans 27, Titans 16
The choice: Texans -8

Broncos at Raiders
Projected score: Broncos 21, Raiders 17
The choice: Raiders +5.5

Cardinals at Seahawks
Projected score: Cardinals 27, Seahawks 23
The choice: Cardinals -1

Eagles in Rams
Projected score: Eagles 26, Rams 21
The choice: Eagles -3